A housing permit is meaningful, but calling it a home delivered would promise more than the measure contains. In their February 16, 2017 release, Census and HUD estimated January authorizations for privately owned U.S. housing units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,285,000. The monthly gain was estimated at 4.6 percent, with a 2.0-percentage-point 90 percent sampling margin. [nrc_201701]
For completed units, the annualized rate was 1,047,000. The estimated monthly change, minus 5.6 percent, had a 90 percent sampling margin of 8.0 percentage points. That interval included zero. Respect for households in discussions of housing means acknowledging that the report established neither a decline in completions nor evidence that the number was exactly unchanged. [nrc_201701]
The earlier January 19 report also matters because it put December housing starts at an annualized, seasonally adjusted rate of 1,226,000 units. February revised that estimate to 1,279,000, while estimating January at 1,246,000. These two releases belong to one joint statistical program. Treating their December numbers as interchangeable would obscure what the later comparison actually measured. [nrc_201701][nrc_201612]
Our ethical reading is modest: do not ask a permission count or an uncertain estimate to carry a promise about people's lives. The agencies note that trends can require several months to establish and that confidence intervals cover sampling variability only. Other errors remain possible. This evidence does not measure a family's access to housing or establish an improvement in affordability. [nrc_201701]
Source documents
- CB17-23: Monthly New Residential Construction, January 2017https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst_201701.pdf
- CB17-09: New Residential Construction in December 2016https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst_201612.pdf